Patient Recruitment Feasibility Analysis

Atopic Dermatitis
Atopic Dermatitis  ·  Phase 2

NCT07742100  |  Northlight Therapeutics  |  RECRUITING

This report maps the addressable patient population within reach of your site, the eligibility barriers that shape the funnel, and what a realistic recruitment campaign looks like from your geography.

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Generated July 13, 2026   ·  Prepared for Bayline Clinical Research

Executive Summary

Recruitment Outlook: Atopic Dermatitis

Sponsor
Northlight Therapeutics
Phase
Phase 2
Enrollment Target
280 patients
US Sites
33
Projected Site Goal
2–4 patients
Est. Completion
2028-04-30
Digital Outreach Potential
8/10
Meta reaches condition-relevant audiences with strong targeting potential. Google Search adds moderate secondary reach among active symptom searchers.
85,000
Est. addressable audience
Google: Moderate
Secondary channel
Patient Recruitment Complexity
7/10
An estimated 32% of respondents meet the full qualification criteria. At 11:1 leads per enrolled patient, expect moderate-level screening overhead.
32%
Leads that qualify
11:1
Leads per patient
Key Considerations
Moderate-to-severe AD has a large, self-identifying patient pool ideal for Meta ads. Per-site goal of just 3 patients is highly achievable. Washout requirements and competing trial density add friction but are manageable with strong pre-screening and creative.
Top Third
Site geography rank among US sites for digital recruitment

Digital Outreach Analysis

Digital Outreach Potential

8/10
Primary Channel: Meta

Platform Reach Assessment

Meta (Facebook/Instagram)
Easy Difficulty, Broad Reach
High competition from Dupixent and other branded pharma campaigns inflates CPCs on Google and clutters the eczema content space on Meta
Google Search
Moderate Difficulty, High Search Demand
Google search volume for eczema and atopic dermatitis treatment terms is strong, with clear treatment-seeking intent from patients searching for alternatives to current therapies. However, healthcare ad policies restrict condition-inferred keyword audiences, and branded competitor terms like 'Dupixent' face high CPCs from pharma advertisers.

Recruitment Challenges

  • High competition from Dupixent and other branded pharma campaigns inflates CPCs on Google and clutters the eczema content space on Meta
  • Mild eczema patients will respond to ads in large numbers, requiring strong pre-screen filtering to avoid wasting site coordinator time
  • Meta's restriction on health interest targeting limits precision, meaning ad spend efficiency depends heavily on creative self-selection

Recruitment Advantages

  • Eczema is highly visual and emotionally resonant, enabling compelling video creative that drives strong engagement and self-selection
  • Large patient population and high digital literacy in the 18-65 range support rapid lead generation at scale
  • Patients frustrated with current topical regimens are actively seeking new options, creating strong treatment-seeking intent on both platforms

Competitive Landscape

Competing Trial Activity: Atopic Dermatitis

2 Competing Trials
50-mile radius
San Diego, CA
NCT ID Sponsor Phase Status Proximity
NCT06807268 Pfizer Phase 3 Recruiting San Diego, CA, about 16 miles from site
NCT07105488 Bluefin Biomedicine, Inc. Phase 2 Recruiting Escondido, CA, about 34 miles from site
What This Means

Atopic dermatitis is a competitive recruitment indication nationally, but within 50 miles of the San Diego site only two overlapping trials are actively recruiting. That leaves room to reach eligible moderate-to-severe patients before the local market saturates.

Enrollment Analysis

Patient Recruitment Complexity

Patient Population Size
~31M AD; ~7-10M with moderate-to-severe disease
Recruitment Difficulty
Moderate
Leads That Qualify
32%
Est. Leads Per Patient
11:1
Patient Journey

From first click to enrolled patient

11
Leads
generated
3
Protocol
screened
1
Patient
enrolled
The Patient Enrollment Funnel

Projected figures based on protocol criteria and local population estimates.

LEADS GENERATED 11 ad responses REACH SCREENING 3 protocol qualified RANDOMIZED 1 enrolled patient
1 in 11
ad responses converts to an enrolled patient for this protocol
1 in 4
leads qualify for protocol screening
33%
of screened patients go on to randomize
2–4
Projected randomizations for this site
Based on the 280-patient study-wide target spread across 85 sites worldwide, not the full study total. To reach it, plan for roughly 22–44 leads and 6–12 protocol screenings.
$330–$660
Estimated cost per randomized patient
At $30–$60 CPL, the 11:1 lead ratio implies $330–$660 per randomized patient.
Estimated Campaign Timeline
3mo
5mo
3 to 5 months from campaign launch to your first randomized patient, accounting for time to process leads, schedule screenings, and complete the screening process

Population estimates based on U.S. Census ACS 5-Year Estimates.

Our Assessment

Atopic Dermatitis Recruitment: Our Read for Bayline Clinical Research

Moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis is one of the more recruitable indications in dermatology, and a per-site goal of three patients sits well within reach for the San Diego catchment. The local challenge is not patient supply, it is patient competition: multiple Phase 3 AD programs are actively recruiting the same population, and the 8-12 week biologic washout will slow time-to-randomization for anyone currently on Dupixent or a JAK. The two-visit severity gate also creates a real screen-fail risk that pre-screening logic needs to absorb before patients reach the site. With disciplined creative and tight pre-qualification, this study has a clear path to enrollment.

Recruitment Challenges

What we'll need to work around

  • Heavy competing trial landscape in AD with multiple Phase 3 programs from major pharma may divert patients
  • 8-12 week biologic washout creates dropout risk and extends time-to-randomization
  • Severity threshold at two visits creates double-gate screen failure risk
Recruitment Advantages

What works in your favor

  • Very low per-site goal of 3 patients makes digital recruitment highly cost-effective with minimal sustained spend
  • Eczema is highly visual and emotionally compelling, enabling strong-performing creative that self-selects moderate-to-severe patients
  • A differentiated investigational mechanism sets the study apart from the crowded IL-4/IL-13 landscape and may attract patients seeking new options
What This Means for Your Study

Key implications

  • Budget can stay lean: at a 3-patient site goal and 11:1 lead ratio, sustained heavy spend is not required, so allocate toward creative production quality rather than raw impression volume.
  • Build the washout window into the timeline from day one, and stage a nurturing sequence for biologic-treated leads so they do not drop off during the 8-12 week wait.
  • Position the differentiated mechanism early in messaging to pull patients away from the crowded IL-4/IL-13 trial field competing for the same San Diego population.
Indication Benchmark

AD recruitment CPP is generally in line with baseline Phase 2/3 campaigns due to the large patient pool and strong self-identification, though competitive trial density in this saturated indication may push costs 1.2-1.5x above baseline.

Make-or-Break Factor

The make-or-break factor is pre-screen precision on disease severity: creative and intake logic must filter for moderate-to-severe presentation before the site invests visit capacity, otherwise the double-gate severity check will inflate screen-fail rates and burn the funnel.

Our Recommended Approach

Our Recommended Approach for Atopic Dermatitis Recruitment

Based on the analysis above, here is the specific approach we would build for Atopic Dermatitis.

THE CAMPAIGN
Video-First Phased Launch With Rapid Format Optimization for Eczema
Launch with 70% video (15-30s patient-perspective clips showing daily itch frustration) and 30% static carousel ads. Allocate 60% of budget to Meta and 40% to Google Search in Phase 1. After 2-3 weeks, shift spend toward top-performing ad sets and retarget video viewers who watched 50%+ but did not convert.
THE CREATIVE
Lead With Uncontrolled Itch and Failed Topical Frustration Messaging
Anchor ad copy on the lived experience of moderate-to-severe eczema: disrupted sleep from nighttime itch, visible flares affecting confidence, and frustration that creams and ointments are not enough. Include explicit callouts like 'Has your eczema not improved with prescription creams?' to self-select the systemic-therapy-candidate population and filter out mild cases.
THE PRE-SCREEN
Three-Gate Severity Qualifier Filters Mild Cases Before Site Referral
Pre-screen form gates on three key disqualifiers: (1) self-reported itch severity on a 0-10 scale, filtering below 4; (2) estimated body coverage, filtering below 10%; and (3) current or recent treatment with biologics like Dupixent, flagging washout requirements. Leads who report mild itch or minimal coverage are thanked and exited before site referral, reducing the 42% severity-threshold fail rate.
THE SEASONAL PUSH
Concentrate Ad Spend in Fall-Winter Eczema Flare Season
AD symptom severity peaks September through February due to cold, dry air and indoor heating. Concentrate 55-60% of total ad spend in this window when patients experience worse flares and are most likely to meet EASI and IGA thresholds at screening. This timing naturally pre-selects for higher-severity patients and reduces seasonal screen failure risk.

The infrastructure is proven. The approach above is built specifically for this indication, this eligibility profile, and this market.

60+ patients randomized | 30+ indications served | $1,167 avg. cost per patient

Ready to Move Forward?

The Report Shows What's Possible. Let's Talk About Making It Happen.

We'll review your protocol in detail, map your site's patient access window given the local population and trial competition, and walk through what a campaign from us would look like for this specific study.

60+ Patients randomized
30+ Indications served
$1,167 Avg. cost per randomized patient (published engagements)
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